JPMorgan Raises 2024 Recession Odds to 35%
Concerns over Easing Labor Market Drive Forecast Increase
In a recent update, JPMorgan has raised its probability forecast for a US recession by the end of the year to 35%, up from the previous estimate of 25%. This adjustment is driven by concerns over an easing labor market, which the bank sees as an indicator of a potential economic downturn.
Weakening Labor Market Signals Economic Slowdown
The easing labor market refers to a situation where there is a decrease in the number of available jobs and an increase in the number of job seekers. This can result in lower wages and fewer opportunities for workers, and is often seen as a precursor to a broader economic slowdown.
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